All of them except North Carolina flipped from Donald Trump to Joe Biden in 2020, and none were decided by more than Michigan's 2.8-percentage-point margin.ĪdImpact is expecting far less 2024 spending in Florida, long the quintessential presidential battleground, after a recent string of GOP electoral successes there.Īnd while the presidential race is expected to see more ad spending, AdImpact presents a modest decrease in ad spending, 9%, in the battle for Senate control. The group also predicts a 17% increase in general election presidential ad spending to $2.1 billion, with more than three-quarters of the projected spending concentrated in seven familiar swing states: Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Wisconsin. AdImpact expects digital spending to increase for the 2024 election cycle compared to 2022, but it is not projected to hit the heights of the last presidential election.Įxcluding that spending, AdImpact is predicting a 27% increase in presidential primary spending between 20. Shifting viewing habits and changing demographics among Americans are having some effect on the ad landscape: TV ad spending is projected to make up a slightly smaller piece of the pie this election cycle, while streaming television is projected to make up a slightly larger share and Spanish-language ads are projected to increase 9% from last cycle.ĭigital ad spending declined from 2020 to 2022 as some major platforms banned political ads for a stretch in part as a response to the spread of misinformation surrounding the 2020 election. The new projected high comes as ad spending in the Republican race has hit a torrid pace, eclipsing $100 million in GOP presidential primary spending far earlier than in previous elections. And it represents a massive increase from the $2.6 billion spent during the 2016 election cycle. But the $10.2 billion projection for 2024 would be a 13% increase over the $9 billion spent in 2020, when two self-funding Democratic billionaires unsuccessfully ran for president. It's no surprise that the presidential race is expected to drive the spending, as it does every election cycle.
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